Nov 12: Ontario Could See 6,500 New Daily Cases of COVID-19 in December, New Modelling Shows

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A woman wearing a protective mask walks past a face mask mural during the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto on Thursday, November 12, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

New projections show Ontario could see as many as 6,500 new daily cases of COVID-19 by mid-December unless steps are taken to limit the spread of the virus.

The new modelling released today shows the province will reach 2,500 new daily cases by that time if the growth rate is at three per cent, or 6,500 if growth is at five per cent.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, one of the experts behind the projections, says a five per cent growth rate is in line with the current situation, or even “slightly optimistic.”

He says more restrictions should be put in place in some of the hot spot areas in order to reduce cases and the impact on the health-care system.

The new projections for how the virus might spread in Ontario come as the province has reported daily case increases above 1,000 for the past week.

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Credit: Government of Ontario

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Credit: Government of Ontario

Ontario reported another a daily record of COVID-19 cases today, with 1,575 new infections recorded.

The province also reported 18 new deaths related to the novel coronavirus.

Health Minister Christine Elliott said there were 472 new cases in Toronto, 448 in Peel Region, 155 in York Region and 91 in Ottawa.

The province said 917 more cases are considered resolved, and the nearly 39,600 tests have been completed since the last daily report.

In total, 431 people are hospitalized in Ontario due to COVID-19, including 98 in intensive care.

Ninety-four long-term care homes are currently experiencing an outbreak of COVID-19, with 695 active cases among residents and 435 among staff.

The latest figures bring the total of COVID-19 cases in Ontario to 89,784, with 3,293 deaths, and 75,228 cases resolved.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 11, 2020.

Paola Loriggio, The Canadian Press

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