Alberta and Texas are often compared because of their large oil and gas industries. But a new study suggests the two energy-producing economies have followed very different paths over the past two decades.
According to the Fraser Institute, Alberta’s inflation-adjusted GDP per person grew just 1.3% between 2004 and 2025, compared with a 45% increase in Texas.
The findings come from What Alberta Can Learn from the “Texas Miracle”, a study by Fraser Institute researchers Ben Eisen and Nathaniel Li.
Alberta Was Ahead of Texas in 2004
The comparison reveals how much the economic positions of the two jurisdictions have changed.
In 2004, Alberta’s real GDP per person was $70,955, about 18% higher than Texas’s $60,154.
By 2025, the situation had reversed:
- Alberta: $71,872 per person
- Texas: $87,060 per person
That put Texas approximately 21% ahead of Alberta, using inflation-adjusted Canadian dollars and purchasing power parity to make the figures comparable.
“Alberta is sometimes described as the Texas of Canada, because the two jurisdictions both have large energy sectors. But over the past 20 years, whereas Texas has thrived economically, Alberta has not,” said Eisen, a Fraser Institute senior fellow.
What Happened to Alberta’s Economy?
Both economies were affected by the oil-price collapse in 2014, but the study finds that Alberta suffered a deeper downturn and a slower recovery.
Texas also outperformed Alberta in employment growth.
Between 2005 and 2024, private-sector employment increased 49% in Texas, compared with 39% in Alberta.
From 2014 to 2025, Alberta’s average unemployment rate was 7.2%, compared with 4.6% in Texas, using comparable unemployment measures.
What Does the Study Recommend?
The researchers argue that Texas benefited from competitive taxes, restrained government spending, regulatory certainty and private-sector investment.
They also note that Texas expanded industries such as technology, manufacturing and finance without reducing the importance of oil and gas.
The study recommends that Alberta strengthen its investment climate rather than rely on government-directed economic diversification.
These are the researchers’ policy conclusions, rather than proof that particular policies alone caused the economic gap.
Report: What Alberta Can Learn from the “Texas Miracle”