The Weather Network says Canada is heading into a split summer, with western Canada expected to be hot while central and eastern regions see more back-and-forth conditions through June, July and August.
Credit: Weather Network
“The global pattern is in a state of upheaval,” said Doug Gillham, Senior Meteorologist with The Weather Network, pointing to a rapid shift from La Niña toward what appears to be “an exceptionally strong El Niño event.”
That unsettled pattern means summer may not fully settle in for Ontario and Quebec. After a warm spell in mid-May, June is expected to feel more like late spring at times. July and August should bring some hot periods, but fewer 30 C days than many recent summers.
British Columbia and the Prairies are expected to start summer warm and dry, raising drought and wildfire concerns. Still, Gillham said western heat is not expected to be as “extreme or relentless” as in some recent years.
Atlantic Canada is forecast to have a slower start, with more rain than last summer. Northern Canada faces warm, dry conditions in the west, while central and eastern areas should be cooler.
The Weather Network: 2026 Summer Forecast
British Columbia:
B.C. is expected to see a strong start to summer, with warmer than normal temperatures and below normal rainfall in June. That raises wildfire concerns as hot, dry weather continues through July and much of August. While brief heat waves are still likely, forecasters do not expect a long-lasting “heat dome” summer. Periodic pattern changes should bring some relief. Unlike recent years, cooler weather may arrive earlier in September.
- Temperature Outlook: Above normal central and east; Near normal west
- Precipitation Outlook: Below normal southern interior; Above normal
northwest; Near normal elsewhere
The Prairies:
The Prairies are expected to start summer very warm and dry, especially in Alberta and western Saskatchewan. Alberta faces early-season heat and moisture concerns, with June rainfall playing a key role in limiting drought risk later in July and August. Saskatchewan and Manitoba should also see above-seasonal warmth in June, though cooler interruptions are more likely farther east. Drought and wildfire smoke remain concerns, but timely showers and thunderstorms could bring meaningful relief during the heart of summer.
Alberta
- Temperature Outlook: Above normal
- Precipitation Outlook: Below normal
Saskatchewan
- Temperature Outlook: Above normal west; Near normal central and east
- Precipitation Outlook: Below normal; Near normal north
Manitoba
- Temperature Outlook: Near normal
- Precipitation Outlook: Below normal; Near normal north
Ontario and Quebec:
Ontario and Quebec are expected to see a changeable summer, with heat building at times but often interrupted by cooler stretches. Southern Ontario may finish close to seasonal overall, despite periods of warmth, with more frequent showers and thunderstorms and possible early shoreline chills near the cooler Great Lakes. Quebec should also see a back-and-forth pattern, with very warm spells offset by cooler breaks. Rain and storms may be more common, though neither region is expected to have a washout summer.
Ontario
- Temperature Outlook: Below normal
- Precipitation Outlook: Above normal south and east; Below normal northwest; Near normal elsewhere
Québec
- Temperature Outlook: Below normal south and west; Near normal east and north
- Precipitation Outlook: Above normal south; Near normal elsewhere
Atlantic Canada:
Atlantic Canada is expected to see a slower start to summer, with June bringing near-seasonal or cooler conditions. The Maritimes may still have stretches of solid summer warmth, with less persistent dryness than in recent years and more plentiful precipitation than last summer. Newfoundland and Labrador should have a sluggish June before a steadier July and August, with temperatures and rainfall near normal overall. Hurricane activity is expected to be quieter, but impactful tropical or post-tropical systems remain possible.
- Temperature Outlook: Near normal
- Precipitation Outlook: Above normal Maritimes; Near normal Newfoundland & Labrador
Northern Canada:
Northern Canada is expected to see a split summer pattern. Western areas, including Yukon and the Northwest Territories, are forecast to be warmer and drier than normal, raising concerns about drought, wildfires and periods of poor air quality. Farther east, Nunavut could lean cooler than seasonal overall, with near-normal precipitation. Smoke may still become an issue at times, depending on fire activity across the region.
- Temperature Outlook: Above normal west; Near normal central; Below normal east
- Precipitation Outlook: Near normal; Below normal west