Calgary 
A new set of population projections from Statistics Canada suggests Canada’s demographic map could look noticeably different in the decades ahead, with Alberta poised to pass British Columbia in population size.
Credit: Person-with-No Name/Flickr/CC BY 2.0
Released amid low birth rates, shifting immigration policies and lingering uncertainty from the pandemic, the projections explore how Canada and its provinces might evolve between 2025 and 2075. They are not forecasts, Statistics Canada emphasizes, but a range of possible outcomes built from recent trends and plausible long-term assumptions.
Starting from an estimated population of 41.7 million on July 1, 2025, all scenarios point to continued national growth. By 2075, Canada’s population could land anywhere between 44.0 million in a low-growth case and 75.8 million in a high-growth scenario. The middle-ground projection places the country at about 57.4 million people.
While Ontario and Quebec are expected to remain the country’s two largest provinces over the next 25 years, one of the most notable shifts appears further west. In nearly every scenario, Alberta’s population overtakes that of British Columbia, reflecting sustained growth driven by migration and economic pull. That change would reshape provincial rankings and influence everything from infrastructure planning to political representation.
The projections also show broader regional shifts. Atlantic provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia, along with Quebec, would make up a smaller share of Canada’s population by mid-century. Meanwhile, the Prairie provinces, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and especially Alberta, would account for a growing portion of the national total.
Taken together, the figures point to a Canada that continues to grow, but not evenly, with Alberta emerging as a key centre of demographic momentum.
