Calgary 
Alberta’s fiscal picture has changed sharply since Budget 2026.
Credit: Bernadette Gallagher
The province’s first-quarter update now forecasts a $2-billion surplus for 2026-27, putting Alberta on track for what could become its sixth consecutive surplus year. That is a major shift from February, when the government projected a $9.4-billion deficit.
In just one quarter, the province says its fiscal position improved by $11.4 billion.
The update comes as trade uncertainty continues to affect global conditions, giving Alberta another reason to keep a close eye on revenues and spending.
Oil is doing much of the heavy lifting. Per the news release, Alberta now expects $23 billion in non-renewable resource revenue, up $9.7 billion from the budget forecast. The province has also raised its West Texas Intermediate oil assumption to US$73.50 per barrel, compared with US$60.50 in Budget 2026.
Other changes include an additional $545 million in corporate income tax and more than $1.4 billion in other revenue.
Altogether, Alberta expects to collect $86.3 billion in revenue for 2026-27, which is $11.7 billion more than originally budgeted.
“Alberta has been given an opportunity and Alberta’s government will not waste it,” said Jason Nixon, President of Treasury Board and Minister of Finance, who said the government plans to protect services while keeping spending under control.
The economic outlook has improved too. Alberta now expects real GDP to grow 2.3 per cent in 2026, up 0.5 percentage points from the budget forecast, followed by 2.5 per cent growth in 2027.
Meanwhile, the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund is tracking toward $32.1 billion by the end of 2026-27, with Premier Danielle Smith aiming for $35 billion by the end of 2027.
Still, the government cautions that oil-price volatility and ongoing trade uncertainty could quickly change the picture.
