Seven Canadian provinces rank among the bottom 10 jurisdictions in North America for economic output per person, while Alberta is the only province to make the top half, according to a new Fraser Institute study.
Alberta remains Canada’s highest-ranked province for economic output per person, but its position relative to U.S. states has deteriorated considerably over the past 25 years.
In 1999, Alberta ranked seventh among Canada’s 10 provinces and all 50 U.S. states. By 2024, it had fallen to 25th, according to a new Fraser Institute study released in October 2026.
The report, Squandering the Canadian Century Part 2, by Jake Fuss, Grady Munro and Joel Emes, examines GDP per capita, employment income, private-sector employment and labour productivity.
“By comparing important economic outcomes in Canadian provinces and American states, it’s easy to see how Canadians stack up to their counterparts south of the border, and in recent years, Canadians have been falling further behind,” said Fuss, the institute’s director of fiscal studies.
How Do Canadian Provinces Compare?
Alberta recorded GDP per capita of $74,907 in 2024, followed by Saskatchewan at $70,921 (35th) and British Columbia at $60,131 (49th).
Seven Canadian provinces occupied the bottom 10 positions among the 60 jurisdictions:
- Ontario: 51st ($59,276)
- Newfoundland and Labrador: 52nd ($59,155)
- Quebec: 55th ($53,812)
- Manitoba: 56th ($52,480)
- Nova Scotia: 58th ($47,451)
- Prince Edward Island: 59th ($47,199)
- New Brunswick: 60th ($46,467)
New York topped the rankings at $111,528.
All figures are expressed in inflation-adjusted 2017 Canadian dollars using purchasing power parity.
Why Does the Study Say Canada Is Falling Behind?
The concern is not simply where provinces rank today, but how slowly economic output has grown.
Between 1999 and 2024, Alberta’s GDP per capita increased by just $6,741, compared with $51,533 in North Dakota.
Employment income tells another story. In 2024, every U.S. state recorded higher median employment income than every Canadian province.
Alberta, despite having Canada’s highest median employment income at $39,345, experienced a $1,219 decline between 2010 and 2024. It was the only jurisdiction among the 60 to record a decrease.
Researchers also found that private-sector employment declined as a share of total employment in every Canadian province between 1999 and 2024.
Productivity growth was similarly uneven. From 2007 to 2024, Alberta’s labour productivity increased 15.6%, compared with 65.8% in Washington state. Forty-five U.S. states outperformed every Canadian province.
How Does This Compare With the Earlier GDP Report?
The findings build on the viral claim that Canada’s national GDP per capita in 2025 was slightly below Mississippi’s.
According to the World Bank, Canada’s GDP per capita stands at US$55,698, just 0.3% below Mississippi’s approximately US$55,877, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The viral claim used national GDP per capita converted into current U.S. dollars, while the Fraser Institute’s latest report compares individual provinces and states using 2024 data.
Importantly, GDP per capita measures economic production, not household income or the amount of money residents have available to spend. It cannot, by itself, establish that people in one jurisdiction enjoy a better overall quality of life.
The institute’s additional findings on employment income and productivity provide further context for its concern about Canada’s relative economic performance. The authors conclude that Canadian provinces have generally experienced slower improvements in economic performance than U.S. states during the first quarter of the century.
“The evidence is clear, the 21st century has, so far, not belonged to Canadians, who have seen their living standards and incomes fall further behind those of Americans,” Fuss said.
More Information: Fraser Institute, Squandering the Canadian Century Part 2: Comparing Economic Performance in Canadian Provinces and US States (October 2026).