Calgary 
Canada’s federal climate scientists are warning that global temperatures will remain near record levels in 2026, with the year forecast to rank among the hottest ever recorded.
The annual mean temperature forecast for 2026 relative to a 1991 to 2020 baseline across Canada. /Credit: Environment and Climate Change Canada
According to a new global mean temperature outlook released by Environment and Climate Change Canada, average global temperatures in 2026 are expected to fall between 1.35 °C and 1.53 °C above pre-industrial levels.
The central estimate is 1.44 °C. That would place 2026 alongside 2023 and 2025 and just below 2024, which remains the warmest year on record.
The forecast indicates that global temperatures will stay at least 1.0 °C above pre-industrial levels for a 13th consecutive year. There is also a greater than 99 per cent probability that 2026 will be warmer than any year recorded prior to 2023. Climate modelling suggests a 12 per cent chance that 2026 could exceed the 1.5 °C threshold set out in the Paris Agreement, though scientists note that the agreement is assessed using long-term averages, not single-year results.
Credit: Environment and Climate Change Canada
The forecast was produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis using a domestically developed climate prediction system. The data is intended to support planning by governments, industries, and communities as climate impacts intensify.
Federal officials point to emissions-reduction measures outlined in Budget 2025 and the Climate Competitiveness Strategy, including enhanced methane regulations for oil and gas and landfills, as part of Canada’s response to rising temperatures.
“Canadians are already experiencing the impacts of a changing climate,” said Julie Dabrusin, adding that the forecast provides science-based guidance to help communities prepare for future risks.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s longer-term outlook suggests the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will likely be the hottest on record globally.
