Calgary 
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has secured his parliamentary seat in the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection, but new polling indicates significant challenges ahead of the party’s national convention in January.
The Angus Reid Institute poll, conducted August 15–18 among 2,020 Canadian adults, found that while 68 per cent of Conservative voters continue to back Poilievre, a majority of Canadians who considered voting Conservative but ultimately abstained—54 per cent—want him replaced as leader.
The party recorded its strongest result in more than 40 years during the April election, but Poilievre’s image remains a liability. Half of Canadians now say they would be “ashamed” if he became prime minister, up from 40 per cent in December 2023. In the same period, the share of respondents who view him as insincere rose from 45 to 52 per cent.
Credit: Angus Reid Institute
Perceptions of Poilievre as a capable critic of government remain strong, with 73 per cent agreeing he plays that role. Yet fewer than four in ten believe he understands their priorities (37%), shares their values (35%), or genuinely cares about women (35%), continuing a trend of weak support among female voters.
Angus Reid Institute
Despite his polarizing image, blame for the Conservative defeat is not placed primarily on him by party supporters. Instead, 39 per cent cite former U.S. president Donald Trump, while 22 per cent fault Liberal leader Mark Carney. Only 14 per cent directly fault Poilievre.
Credit: Angus Reid Institute
Criticism of the campaign varies between groups. Among Conservative voters, 61 per cent said the party should have shifted strategy once the carbon tax issue was removed. Meanwhile, potential supporters who turned away cited negativity (59%), Trump-like rhetoric (59%), and the lack of a clear national plan (70%).
Nearly half of Canadians (48%), including 53 per cent of women, say the Conservative Party does not represent them. Forty-five per cent also believe the party has moved toward the fringes, compared with 25 per cent in 2017.
