Canada is heading into a winter shaped by two major atmospheric forces, and early signs point toward a season that looks and feels far more traditional than last year.
Credit: Weather Network
The Weather Network has released its outlook for December through February, outlining how a disrupted polar vortex and a strengthening La Niña are expected to influence conditions across the country.
Doug Gillham, senior meteorologist at The Weather Network, says the unusually early disruption of the polar vortex is helping funnel Arctic air into southern Canada as the season begins. At the same time, La Niña has returned in a slightly stronger form than last winter. Gillham says the combination is poised to create “a truly Canadian winter” for most regions.
Snowfall outlook/Credit: Weather Network
Forecasters are unsure whether February will maintain the widespread cold or shift the harshest weather toward western Canada, but the overall temperature trend leans toward near-normal or colder-than-normal conditions. Exceptions include parts of Atlantic Canada and northern regions, which have the best chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures. Across the country, an active storm track is expected to bring typical or above-average snowfall for many areas.
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British Columbia
British Columbia is expected to see colder conditions in the eastern half of the province, with a heightened risk of severe cold. Snowfall should be close to normal, though the north coast is expected to be drier than usual.
Eastern B.C. is expected to face a notably cold winter with an increased chance of severe cold, while coastal areas like Vancouver and Victoria should experience near-normal temperatures but remain vulnerable to Arctic outflow events. An inconsistent storm track will alternate between dry periods and moisture-rich storms, resulting in near-normal precipitation for most regions. The north coast should be drier than usual, while the Kootenays and Rockies are forecast to see above-normal snowfall.
Pineapple Express events – a weather phenomenon known for heavy rain, flooding, and mudslides, which form when Pacific high and low-pressure systems channel moisture-laden winds, are considered less likely than usual.
- Temperature Outlook: Near normal west; Below normal east
- Precipitation Outlook: Near normal; Above normal southwest; Below normal north coast
Prairies
The Prairies are expected to face a very cold winter, with temperatures frequently below normal and an increased risk of prolonged severe cold.
Chinook winds may briefly ease conditions in Alberta, but the dominant pattern remains frigid. Snowfall should be near normal for most areas, though southern Alberta and southwestern
Saskatchewan are forecast to see above-normal totals, along with blizzard risks at times. Saskatchewan and Manitoba are also expected to endure persistent cold, potentially lasting into March, with a slower start to spring.
Alberta
- Temperature Outlook: Below normal
- Precipitation Outlook: Above normal south; Near normal central and north
Saskatchewan
- Temperature Outlook: Below normal
- Precipitation Outlook: Near normal; Above normal southwest
Manitoba
- Temperature Outlook: Below normal
- Precipitation Outlook: Near normal
Ontario and Quebec
Ontario and Quebec are expected to enter winter with a colder start than residents have seen in recent years, bringing more snow and wintry conditions through the holiday period.
Colder-than-normal temperatures are forecast to continue well into January, supported by lake-effect snow across Ontario’s traditional snow belts.
Later in the season, the pattern may shift, especially in southern Ontario and southern Quebec, where an extended stretch of milder weather is possible. Throughout the region, an active storm track is expected to produce near-normal or above-normal precipitation and snowfall.
However, southern areas, including cities such as Toronto, London, Ottawa, and Montreal, could experience messy storms featuring ice or rain, particularly during the second half of winter.
Ontario
- Temperature Outlook: Below normal; Near normal southwest
- Precipitation Outlook: Above normal south; Near normal north
Quebec
- Temperature Outlook: Below normal south and west; Near normal east
- Precipitation Outlook: Above normal south; Near normal elsewhere
Atlantic Canada
Atlantic Canada is expected to see a highly changeable winter, marked by stretches of very cold weather, especially early in the season and through the holidays, mixed with periods of milder conditions.
Southern Nova Scotia and much of Newfoundland and Labrador have the greatest likelihood of above-normal temperatures later in January and February. Precipitation should be near normal during a typically active season that will include several high-impact winter storms and a risk of blizzard conditions.
Parts of the region, particularly Nova Scotia and eastern Newfoundland, including St. John’s, are forecast to receive below-normal snowfall due to more mixed-precipitation systems involving ice and rain. Warmer periods later in the season may offset early-season cold.
- Temperature Outlook: Above normal southern Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and
eastern Labrador; Near normal elsewhere - Precipitation Outlook: Near normal
Northern Canada
Eastern parts of Northern Canada, including Iqaluit, are expected to have above-normal temperatures. In contrast, southern Yukon, including Whitehorse, will experience colder-than-normal conditions.
The Northwest Territories and western Nunavut are projected to have near-normal temperatures and snowfall, balancing between the extremes seen elsewhere.
- Temperature Outlook: Near normal Yukon, NWT and southern Nunavut; Above normal central and northern Nunavut
- Precipitation Outlook: Near normal; Below normal southern Yukon
The Weather Network advises Canadians to stay vigilant, as winter weather can rapidly change, posing travel risks. For up-to-date forecasts, Canadians are encouraged to visit The Weather Network’s website or use its app.