Toronto 
Environment and Climate Change Canada has released the latest probabilistic seasonal forecasts for the Fall season and, most regions in Canada are expected to experience warmer temperatures this coming season.
Notably, central and Atlantic Canada are poised for significant warmth.
Credit: Environment and Climate Change Canada
The forecast for September, October and November indicates that cities like Charlottetown and St John’s, NL are almost certain to experience above-normal temperatures, with probabilities at 93% and 97% respectively. Other cities, although slightly lower, still show significant likelihoods of warmer weather: Calgary (61%), Edmonton (68%), and Fredericton (84%). Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto also anticipate warmer seasons, each with over 80% probability.
The warm trend continues with Quebec City at 88%, Winnipeg at 86%, and Yellowknife facing a 70% chance of exceeding typical temperature norms. In contrast, some cities have lower but notable probabilities, such as Vancouver (55%), Victoria (60%), and the lowest, Whitehorse, at 47%.
Credit: Environment and Climate Change Canada
Conversely, precipitation patterns suggest a normal season for the Prairies, while Eastern Canada might receive less rainfall than usual. The data indicates an above-normal precipitation probability with Halifax and Thunder Bay showing the lowest expectations at 16% and 15%, respectively.
Cities like Vancouver and Yellowknife are forecasted to have a 36% and 42% probability of above precipitation levels, offering a slight contrast to the predominantly drier predictions across other eastern regions.
