Moncton 
Fraser Institue today released a report, Measuring the Fiscal Performance of Canada’s Premiers, 2022, ranking Canada’s premiers (seven current and four former) on their management of provincial finances.
Credit: Fraser Institute
For the report, the non-partisan Canadian public policy think-tank analysed performances in three fiscal policy categories: government spending, taxes, and deficits and debt up to the fiscal year 2021/22. The relative performance of each premier was measured from the time they first held office until the 2021/22 fiscal year.
Premiers who managed to spend more prudently, balanced their budgets and paid down debt, and reduced or maintained competitive tax rates were ranked higher. New Brunswick’s Blaine Higgs topped the list for managing provincial finances, while Newfoundland and Labrador’s Andrew Furey was 10th.
Credit: Fraser Institute
As per the report, N.B premier ranked first in overall fiscal performance with a score of 75.8 out of 100. Higgs ranked first on government spending. Fraser Institue says he was the only premier who ran surpluses and paid down the province’s debt during the entirety of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While Manitoba’s former premier Brian Pallister was ranked the lowest in multiple popularity polls, Fraser Institute’s analysis finds him the second best with a score of 63.8. Ontario’s Doug Ford (60.6) placed third, followed by Nova Scotia’s recent former premiers Stephen McNeil and Iain Rankin (60.4) and British Columbia’s John Horgan (56.1).
Measuring the Fiscal Performance of Canada’s Premiers, 2022/Fraser Institute
In the category of Government spending, the Fraser Institute report says “if a premier increased program spending faster than economic growth or the combined rate of inflation plus population growth, then their relative score dropped.”
Premier Higgs ranked highest on government spending (with a score of 98.9) ahead of McNeil/Rankin (89.1) and Pallister (86.6).
In the Tax category, Fraser Institute analysed premiers’ relative performance on taxation in both corporate income taxes and personal income taxes. Alberta Premier Kenney is ranked first in this category with a score of 82.3.
New Brunswick Premier Higgs also topped the debt and deficits category with a score of 100. The premiers were evaluated on their use of deficit financing for government spending and whether they increased or reduced their province’s debt burden.
The report finds that net debt as a share of GDP declined during Brain Higgs’ period in office—the most among all premiers. Fraser Institute says the Alberta premier is placed last in this category due to the size of the average annual deficit between 2019/20 and 2021/22 with a large increase in provincial debt. As per the report, “though Alberta reported a surplus in 2021/22, the scale of Alberta’s deficits in 2019/20 and 2020/21 were substantial and net debt as a percentage of GDP climbed from 7.9 percent in 2018/19 (fiscal year before Kenney took office) to 16.0 percent in 2021/22.”
A detailed report is available here.
