Toronto 
The federal political landscape in Canada is shifting as the Liberal leadership race takes shape, with five candidates in the running. New polling from the Angus Reid Institute suggests that former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has emerged as a strong contender, tightening the race between the Liberals and Conservatives.
Credit: Angus Reid Institute
With Carney as the hypothetical Liberal leader, support for the party has increased to 37%, compared to 40% for the Conservatives.
This surge appears to come at the expense of the New Democrats, whose support has dropped from 21% to 10% since December. Under Carney’s leadership, 42% of previous NDP voters indicate they would now vote Liberal, while 44% would remain with the NDP.
If Chrystia Freeland were leading the Liberals, their support would decline to 29%, while NDP support would rise to 16%.
Highlights of the Poll:
- The Prime Minister’s approval rating has climbed to 34%, the highest since 2023, following his decision to step aside and rising national pride amid U.S. tensions.
- If Carney leads the Liberals, vote intention tightens to a three-point gap between the Conservatives (40%) and the Liberals (37%).
- The New Democrats see a significant drop in support, from 21% to 10%, as nearly half (42%) of their 2021 voters indicate they would switch to the Liberals under Carney.
- With Chrystia Freeland as the hypothetical Liberal leader, the party’s support drops to 29%, and the NDP retains more of its base (16%).
- With Carney as leader, the Liberals and Conservatives are nearly tied (45% CPC, 44% Liberal) in Ontario. In Quebec, the Liberals (31%) are in close competition with the Bloc Québécois (30%), leading the CPC by nine points. In Alberta, Carney secures 27% Liberal support, compared to 17% under Freeland.
- The CPC maintains a strong lead in British Columbia, but the margin narrows with Carney as leader (+8 CPC) compared to Freeland (+15 CPC).
Credit: Angus Reid Institute
- Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre faces his highest unfavorability rating yet, at 56%. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the lowest net favorability among all party leaders, with a -25 rating (favourable-unfavourable). Poilievre’s net favorability is -19.
- The top concerns for Canadians remain the cost of living (52%) and healthcare (39%), but relations with the U.S. (34%) have become a growing issue following threats of tariffs from the Trump administration.
The Angus Reid Institute surveyed 2,011 Canadian adults online (Feb. 13-18, 2025). The margin of error is ±1.5 percentage points.
