Alberta Releases COVID-19 Modelling Data Which Projected 800,000 to One Million Infections

Alberta has released the modelling projections for COVID-19. Alberta Health’s modelling projections indicate total cases range from 800,000 to one million infections, from mild and undiagnosed to detected, confirmed and treated, under two provincial scenarios.

The Government of Alberta is advising that existing public health orders could be in place until the end of May to protect the health and safety of Albertans.

You may like: This is How Alberta’s COVID-19 Cases and Testing Compares With Other Provinces and Countries

Modelling Assumptions

 

The model uses several key assumptions, including:

  • not all cases are detected
  • transmission is more common within an age group, rather than between age groups
  • there is no asymptomatic transmission
  • people are infectious for five to 10 days
  • all ICU patients require ventilation
  • overall 14 per cent of cases are hospitalized and 5 per cent require ICU, but this varies significantly by age

Modelling Scenarios

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Probable Scenario
• For every case, 1-2 more people are infected.
• This scenario is comparable to the more moderate growth seen in the UK and countries that have had some
success in “containing” growth.
• Given our early and aggressive interventions and contact tracing to limit spread, this is expected to be the most likely scenario for Alberta.
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Elevated Scenario
• For every case, 2 people are infected.
• This is comparable to the more rapid growth initially seen in Hubei.
• Planning for this scenario is prudent and responsible given the catastrophic impacts should the health system become overwhelmed.
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Extreme Scenario
• For every case, 3 more people are infected.
• This scenario assumes limited and late interventions so that COVID-19 rapidly spreads through the population.
• This scenario shows what would have happened if Alberta did not undertake early and aggressive interventions and contact tracing to limit spread.

 

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AHS plans to have 2,250 COVID-19 designated acute care beds by the end of April. As of April 3, 2020, 1,935 are available for COVID patients; and new COVID dedicated spaces are being brought online. AHS plans to have 761 ventilators available by the end of April for COVID-19 patients, if necessary, to respond to severe a scenario.

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The detailed AHS report is available here.

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