Banff 
In the wake of the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, new polling from Leger points to growing unease in Canada about the direction of American foreign policy, including concern that Canada itself could one day be a target.
According to the survey, 31% of Canadians say it is likely that the United States could attempt direct action to take control of Canada in the future. While Canada ranks lowest among the countries tested, its inclusion reflects a shift in how some Canadians view their relationship with the U.S.
When Canadians were asked where future U.S. intervention is most likely to occur, Greenland ranked first at 55%. Cuba followed at 51%, with Colombia and Panama each cited by 47% of respondents. Iran was named by 36%. Canada’s 31% figure places it below those countries but still ahead of what many might expect for a close ally.
Credit: Leger
American respondents expressed less concern. Among the 1,011 Americans surveyed, 20% believe the U.S. government might attempt direct action against Canada, an 11-point gap compared with Canadian opinion.
The data also reveal political divides within Canada. Concern about possible U.S. action against Canada is highest among Green Party supporters, at 58%, followed by those intending to vote NDP at 44%. Liberal voters are closer to the national average at 34%, while Conservative supporters report lower concern at 30%. Bloc Québécois supporters are the least likely to see Canada as a potential target, at 27%.
Credit: Leger
The poll suggests Canadians are paying close attention to U.S. actions abroad. Nearly two-thirds, 65%, say they are following developments related to the United States and Venezuela. That attention appears to be shaping broader judgments about the intervention itself.
A majority of Canadians, 53%, say the U.S. military action in Venezuela was a bad thing because it violated the country’s sovereignty and set a dangerous precedent. Only 23% believe the intervention was justified on the grounds that it removed a corrupt regime and could improve governance. By comparison, 39% of Americans share that view.
Motivations behind the intervention are also viewed skeptically in Canada. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians (63%) say the primary reason for the U.S. action was to gain control of Venezuela’s oil reserves.
These views are reflected in perceptions of the U.S. government more broadly. The survey finds that 56% of Canadians report that the intervention has worsened their impression of the American government, whereas only 9% report that it has improved their view.
The online survey was conducted between January 9 and 11, 2026, among 1,540 Canadians and 1,011 Americans aged 18 or older, with results weighted to reflect national demographics.
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