Toronto 
Groundhog Day, or February 2nd, is the day when woodchucks tell Canadians what awaits them in the months till the official start of Spring. Will it be a long or short winter — as if waiting until early February wasn’t long enough? How long is that groundhog’s shadow?
For an almost uniquely North American celebration, Groundhog Day has its roots in Medieval Europe and the celebration of Candlemas, a festival in which candles were lit at churches to commemorate Jesus’s presentation at the temple. Candlemas also have much in common with pre-existing Pagan observances in Pagan times, when farmers would carry torches around their fields before sowing time. Candlemas fall 40 days after Christmas and in between the winter solstice and spring equinoxes.
Legend has it that, on February 2nd, if the groundhog emerges from its burrow, sees its shadow and then returns, winter will last for another six weeks. If it doesn’t see its shadow, winter will be shorter.
“Groundhog Day” is different depending on where in Canada you find yourself. Let’s run through Groundhog Day in each of the provinces that have some sort of celebration to observe the day: Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia.
Groundhog Day Celebrations in Canada
Credit: Shubenacadie Wildlife Park
Shubenacadie Sam is one of the most famous Canadian groundhogs. It should be noted that Shubenacadie Sam is not a singular groundhog. Rather, there have been four groundhogs that have served as Shubenacadie Sam since the inception of the furry forecaster in 1987 at Shubenacadie Wildlife Park. Shubenacadie Sam is such a phenomenon that Shubenacadie Wildlife Park instituted the “Sam Cam”, a webcam that monitors Shubenacadie Sam, so that no matter where you are in Canada, you can get the forecast for an early spring (or not).
Shubenacadie Sam also gets his own procession before he makes his prediction, including a bagpiper and the town crier!
However, Shubenacadie Sam isn’t the only groundhog in Nova Scotia with an opinion on the length of winter! There’s also “Two Rivers Tunnel” at Two Rivers Wildlife Park in Huntington, Nova Scotia. He and Shubenacadie Sam are the two groundhogs that those in Atlantic Canada rely upon for their weather forecasts on February 2nd.
Nova Scotia also has a unique native animal predicting the weather – a lobster. Lucy the Lobster is the mascot of the Nova Scotia Lobster Crawl Festival, which takes place in February.
2024:
Shubenacadie Sam – Prediction – Early Spring
Friday, February 2, 2024, 8 a.m.
Shubenacadie Provincial Wild Park, 149 Creighton Rd, Shubenacadie
Lucy the Lobster – Prediction – Six more weeks of winter
Friday, February 2, 2024 | 8 am AST
Cape Sable Island Causeway, Barrington
TR Tunnel – Prediction – Six more weeks of winter
Friday, February 2, 2024 | 8 am AST
Cape Sable Island Causeway, Barrington
Groundhog Day in New Brunswick
Ironically, Groundhog Day in New Brunswick never really got off the ground. The province attempted to start a tradition in 2011, with the inception of “Oromocto Ollie” by the province’s Capital Commission.
This attempt to begin a new tradition within New Brunswick meteorology fell flat on its face the following year when Oromocto Ollie was still asleep on February 2nd, 2012, and nobody wished to wake him.
Now, New Brunswickers look to Shubenacadie Sam in Nova Scotia for their spring weather predictions.
Groundhog Day in Quebec
Groundhog Day in Quebec features “Fred la Marmotte” Quebec’s prognosticating groundhog, Fred, or “Gros Fred” was predicting Quebec’s springtime from 2010 to 2017, after being replaced by his son, “Petit Fred” in 2018, but returned to predict in 2019. Fred is unique in being the only groundhog in North America to make his prediction in a UNESCO World Heritage Site, as his home is in Val D’Espoir on the Gaspesie tourist region in Quebec.
The town of Val D’Espoir’s local church usually hosts the prediction of Fred each and every year, complete with pancale breakfast and fun activities for visiting young children.
2024:
Fred the Groundhog — Prediction — Early Spring
Friday, February 2, 2024 | 6:30 a.m E.S.T, events from 5:30 to 10:00 a.m.
Val d’Espoir church, 1234 Principale
Groundhog Day in Ontario
Oil Springs Ollie. Credit: City of Sarnia
Wiarton Willie is another of Canada’s most well-known groundhogs, who, along with his successors (each named Willie), has been making prognostications since 1957.
Wiarton Willie of the Town of Wiarton in Southern Bruce Peninsula is so famous there is usually a huge festival dedicated to the event with morning fireworks.
During the festival, visitors are treated to free activities during the weekend at downtown Wiarton. On February 2nd, visitors usually gather at Bluewater Park to enjoy fireworks at 7:00 a.m., and Willie’s prediction is at precisely 8:07 a.m.
Ontario has another rodent in Lambton County who makes his prediction without that much fanfare.
Groundhog Harvey debuted 2022 at Heaven’s Wildlife Rescue Rehabilitation & Education Centre in Oil Springs. He took over from Oil Springs Ollie, who died in April 2021.
According to the internet, Gary the Groundhog makes his home in Kleinburg (Vaughan). However, when ToDoCanada.ca contacted the Kleinburg Village Association, they could not provide any information regarding Gary’s existence.
2024:
Wiarton Willy — Prediction — Early Spring
Friday, February 2, 2024 | 8:07 a.m. E.S.T
Wiarton Arena Parking Lot, Wiarton
Groundhog Harvey — Prediction — Early Spring
Friday, February 2, 2024 | 8:07 a.m. E.S.T
Heaven’s Wildlife Rescue, Oil Springs
Groundhog Day in Manitoba
Winnipeg Wyn, Credit: Prairie Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre
Manitoba’s relationship with Groundhog Day has been a troubled one at times, from the inception of Manitoba Merv, providing a light-hearted look at winter in a usually cold and frigid place for months on end, to complete fabrication, such as that of Brandon Bob.
Beginning with the truth, sort of, Manitoba Merv began his life as a puppet acting in shows some 25-plus years ago and has since evolved into a phenomenon in the province. Manitoba Merv is said to have an accuracy of 98% of predictions, which is pretty high for a puppet!
Manitoba Merv makes his home in a cardboard box at the Oak Hammock Marsh Interpretive Centre in Stonewall, Manitoba. Merv only comes out once a year on February 2nd before returning to his boxed home in an office at Oak Hammock.
The stuffed nature of Manitoba Merv doesn’t stop Oak Hammock from making an entire day out of his existence, which also happens to coincide with World Wetlands Day, celebrating the adoption of the Convention on Wetlands in 1971 on the shores of Caspian Sea. The centre hosts a variety of activities aimed at education and fun, coinciding wonderfully with Manitoba Merv’s prediction!
Manitoba was home to Winnipeg Wyn, who resided at FortWhyte Alive. Part of Prairie Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre’s education team, Winnipeg Wyn’s prediction depended on the PWRC Staff’s observation of Wyn during winter and understanding her behaviours rather than relying on shadows. Wyn replaced Winnipeg Willow, a rescued woodchuck that died in 2016, as the centre’s Groundhog Day prognosticator. Winnipeg Wyn died in August 2020.
2024:
Manitoba Merv — Prediction — Six more weeks of winter
Friday, February 2, 2024 | Sunrise
Oak Hammock Marsh Wetland Discovery Centre, 1 Snow Goose Bay, Stonewall.
Groundhog Day in Alberta
Credit: Balzac Business Community Association
Once again, Canada’s Western provinces produce no real groundhogs to be held to account for their predictions! Our next furry friend who’s not a real groundhog is Balzac Billy, a mascot from the town of Balzac, 24km north of Calgary. The origins of Balzac Billy can be traced to the 1970s, when Balzac’s then-mayor, Merle Osborne, befriended a Richardson Ground Squirrel.
During the next several decades, Balzac Billy would disappear from public life following several inaccurate predictions. However, he has made a return in recent years as a mascot for the town, drawing in crowds every February 2nd. This year the event will be held at Blue Grass Nursery & Garden Centre at 8:00 a.m.
2024:
Balzac Billy — Prediction — Six more weeks of winter
Friday, February 2nd, 2024 | 8:00 a.m. M.S.T
Blue Grass Nursery & Garden Centre, 260130B Writing Creek Cres, Rocky View
Groundhog Day in British Columbia
Vancouver Island marmots (groundhogs are marmots) predict the weather on Groundhog Day for British Columbia. The marmot, Van Isle Violet, who resides at Marmot Recovery Foundation located at Mount Washington on Vancouver Island, is the usual prognosticator.
Marmots usually hibernate until April/May. The staff of the foundation wakes the marmots at the institute throughout the hibernation period, including February 2nd, for health checks and it is at this time that Violet “predicts” whether the Island will see an early spring.
During the 2021 Groundhog Day, Violet was missing from her burrow, and the staff used two captive marmots, Chopper and Marlu, for predictions.
In 2022, Canada got another stuffed prognosticator — Okanagan Okie was introduced as Canada’s newest weather prediction specialist in Vernon.
Okanagan Okie is Allan Brooks Nature Centre’s mascot, a yellow-bellied marmot commonly found in the grasslands of the valley.
Allan Brooks Nature Centre holds a family fun event for all on Groundhog Day – guests can enjoy a warm cup of hot chocolate, delicious donuts, a cozy seat by the bonfire, and the opportunity to meet others who are also eager to see the end of winter.
2024:
Okanagan Okie – Prediction — TBA
Friday, February 2, 2024 | 10:15 am
Allan Brooks Nature Centre, Grasslands Theatre, 250 Allan Brooks Way, Vernon
Van Isle Violet – Prediction — Six more weeks of winter
Friday, February 2, 2024
Marmot Recovery Foundation
Groundhog Day in the United States
The most famous weather-predicting groundhog in North America resides in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania and is aptly named Punxsutawney Phil. According to the folklore that surrounds Punxsutawney Phil, people who attend the Groundhog Day events participate in a willful suspension of disbelief and are told by organizers of the event — dressed in top hats and tuxedos — that Punxsutawney Phil has been making his predictions since 1886, sustained by the “elixir of life” or “groundhog punch,” though scientifically, the average groundhog lives for about six years.
Still, of course, unperturbed by science getting in the way of a little harmless fun, the organizers of the event maintain the legend. Adding more to the legend are the two scrolls placed on the stump of a tree during the ceremony, one telling of a long winter, the other of a coming Spring. These are written in Groundhog-ese and are only communicated by Phil to the President of the Groundhog Club — a language only the Groundhog Club President and Phil can understand.
An Escape from the crushing reality of long Canadian winters.
If this all seems a little bit ridiculous – that’s because it is, which is precisely the point. Despite the claims made by the organizers of these events across North America, meteorologists in Canada have squashed claims of accuracy, according to the Canadian Encyclopedia: “However, Canadian meteorological data prove that the groundhogs’ success rate is quite low. Meteorological data from 13 Canadian cities over the past 30 to 40 years indicate that there have been an equal number of sunny and cloudy days on 2 February. During this period, the groundhogs’ predictions were correct only 37 percent of the time, meaning that winters remained cold for several weeks after the groundhog saw its shadow on 2 February or that temperatures became much milder than usual if that day was too cloudy for a shadow to be seen. However, the groundhogs’ predictions were incorrect for about two-thirds of those years, either because they were the opposite of what they should have been or because winter persisted naturally. Given that 33 percent accuracy can occur by chance, a score of 37 percent is not considered significant.”
So, there you have it. Science. However, I think we should all participate in Groundhog Day if only to alleviate ourselves from the crushing reality of long Canadian winters.
By: Jack Hawkins
