Ontario has released its projections of COVID-19 cases in Ontario based on the province’s COVID-19 modeling.
The report was released by Matthew Anderson, President and CEO of Ontario Health, Adalsteinn (Steini) Brown, Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, and Dr. Peter Donnelly, President, and CEO of Public Health Ontario.
The report states that there will be 1,600 deaths and 80,000 positive cases in Ontario with the current intervention measures. If Ontario introduces stricter measures, the number of cases can be reduced to 12,500 cases and 200 deaths.
Ontario projects a 3,000 to 15,000 deaths over the course of this pandemic.
Without any intervention, 6,000 people would have died by April end and 100,000 over the course of this pandemic.
Ontario can expect 1,600 COVID-19 related deaths by the end of April if stricter measures were not taken, according to computer models projecting tracks for the virus that has already killed 98.
That number could be as low as 200 if the province moves to “full future intervention” and more people staying home.
Ontario has currently 410 available ICU beds for COVID19 patients in addition to beds currently filled with COVID19 patients. Ontario is expanding by 900 additional ICU beds for COVID19 patients.
The death rate for influenza in Canada is 500 to 1500 cases per year. In Canada, as of March 21, 2020 there have been 41,981 confirmed cases of influenza.
See the full media briefing here.
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